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A scientist once told him that 鈥渢he rice sector is knowledge rich but solution poor,鈥� he says, which is why he鈥檚 focused on helping growers succeed while also adopting more-efficient, greener methods. 鈥淓ffectively, we鈥檙e telling the farmers, 鈥楲ook, if you want access to finance, you need to commit to changing to sustainable practices,鈥欌�� Chen says. 鈥溾�楢nd to go one level up, if you want access to more-affordable finances, you need to make sure that your sustainable metrics keep improving.鈥欌��

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The stakes are unmistakably high. It鈥檚 almost impossible to overstate the significance of the global rice crop: more than half of the world鈥檚 inhabitants count the grain as a staple, and Asia grows the vast majority of the crop worldwide. For 3 billion humans, rice is intertwined with both their diets and their culture.

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The good news is that global rice production is rising. The grain鈥檚 yield is forecast to hit a record 506 million tons for 2021鈥�2022, although those same prognostications also put global rice consumption at a record 514 million tons. And there鈥檚 an additional cloud attached to that silver lining: rising crop yields may not be sustainable over the long term because of climate change.

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A looming threat

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Rice is particularly and uniquely vulnerable to the whims of a warming planet. The crop needs a lot of water and is associated with elevated greenhouse gas emissions, making it both a contributor to and a victim of climate change. Rice often grows in low-lying regions, such as deltas, which are particularly imperiled by rising seas, which makes groundwater salinity a growing headache.听

Many of the world鈥檚 rice farmers operate in regions prone to high temperatures, and waves of even more extreme heat and the resulting desertification could make it hard for them to raise viable crops, . In a , the International Rice Research Institute reported that the grain will likely be 鈥渢he cultivated crop most vulnerable to future changing climates.鈥�

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In 2018, the Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science more-frequent hotter weather could drive down yields by as much as 40 percent by the century鈥檚 end. Much of the world鈥檚 rice is already grown in areas with temperatures that are close to the ceiling of the optimum range for rice production. 鈥淭herefore,鈥� the study reports, 鈥渁ny further rise in mean temperature or short episode of high temperature during sensitive growth stages will be catastrophic.鈥�

The coming challenges involve simple economics: many Asian farmers work at or below the poverty line and can鈥檛 afford to retool their systems. That leaves farmers, particularly smallholders in the global south, at the front line of climate change, 鈥渋ll-trained and ill-equipped,鈥� says Tim Benton, research director for emerging market risks at the think tank Chatham House.

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Adapting to climate change may require increasing inputs (water and fertilizer), acquiring or upgrading agricultural equipment, and buying improved seeds, says Amanda Carrico, a professor in the environmental studies program at the University of Colorado, Boulder, who is now in Bangladesh examining climate change impacts on farming communities and the resulting migration patterns. She points out that shifting from familiar forms of agriculture, which in many cases have been practiced for generations, to new approaches is extremely risky. Many farmers don鈥檛 have the economic resources to absorb the risk should a new approach fail, she says.

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鈥淭he development sector has been trying their very best to get the farmers to adopt sustainable practices,鈥� Chen says, 鈥渂ut I think by now they realize that they鈥檙e doing it all wrong, because most of the smallholder farmers understand climate change, but they simply don鈥檛 have the luxury to care. They鈥檙e more worried about immediate livelihoods.鈥�

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New ways forward

Agricultural and market experts continue to debate potential solutions. Some have turned to alternate wetting and drying (AWD), a technique that reduces water use, increases water efficiency, and cuts greenhouse gas emissions while maximizing the use of inputs.听But since maintaining flooded paddy fields helps suppress weeds, the reduced flooding resulting from AWD means more labor is needed to remove the weeds, Carrico says. Many farmers have no control over water-release schedules, making adoption of the practice challenging.

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Chen believes that a larger shift may eventually be in order: radical as it may sound, people may need to see rice as less of a staple and more of a luxury item, so that farmers can reap higher paychecks for their yields. 鈥淐arrico, worried that market upheavals will lead to hunger, has a more nuanced approach: 鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe we can leave this to markets. We need policies that ensure at least basic access to sufficient affordable and nutritious foods.鈥�

While doing research in South Asia, Carrico has seen progress. In Sri Lanka, some farmers are responding to climate change by establishing agro-wells (wells specially constructed for agricultural needs), converting to new rice varieties, or switching away from rice altogether. The government has adapted agricultural infrastructure by developing and rehabilitating irrigation systems and redistributing water resources during periods of scarcity (for example, alternating between using it for energy and for cultivation). In Bangladesh, some people are leaving agricultural lives and moving from the countryside to cities. Others are migrating seasonally from region to region in order to plant where the climate is hospitable.

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But more needs to happen, Carrico says. 鈥淚 believe there is much more that could have been done up to this point by governments and other institutions to support farmers and also to adapt infrastructure,鈥� she says. Climate change is coming, and in many rice growing areas, it is already here. Adapting to it will take urgent collective effort.

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SOURCES

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